Pollster Alex Bruno says that Dominica is politically up for grabs
Alex Bruno spent twelve days walking Dominica in July 2026 with a clipboard and a small team of poll workers from his polling company Caribbean Agency for Political Advancement (CAPA). What he learned from the numbers disturbed him. Talking to Anthony Drigo on This Week in Interview on this week’s episode of the weekly program on TDN Radio Caribbean.
“I came back with a glaze in my eyes, depressed like crazy because of what I found on the island,” he told Anthony. “I’m being honest to God about that.” He added.
CAPA has been polling Dominica for more than twenty years. The nationwide survey he discussed on the program was conducted between July 16th and July 26th, 2026. Fourteen items were covered with face-to-face interviews. No political party paid for it and that turned out to be of interest.
Headline
Finding a number that keeps surfacing no matter which way Bruno turns the data. Somewhere between 43 and 44 percent of Dominicans have not committed to any party or politician. Bruno resists calling them swing voters, he prefers his own phrase.
“Quiet abeyance,” he says. “They have just retired or resigned themselves to the notion. But is it even worth it? Some people are fed up. Some have given up. Some say it makes no sense.”
These voters did not migrate from one party to another. They stepped back from both.” Speaking about the incumbent Dominica Labour Party and the United Workers Party. Bruno reports a movement away from the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) and also away from the United Workers Party (UWP) at roughly the same rate, with attrition running a few percentage points heavier on the incumbent majority side.
Anthony stated that, “If you are a strategist sitting on either side of the fence, your base is already in the bag. The election lives in that 43 percent.”
Bruno agreed with this summary, that Dominica is politically up for grabs at this time, though with caution, stating that he is not and does not predict election results.
“I suggest trends,” he said. “Don’t hold it against me if that incumbent party is so unpopular now comes and win all the seats at the next election.”
The Youth
Bruno talked about the second finding which cuts across the political divide clearly.
“More than 60 percent of Dominicans between 18 and 35 are unemployed or under-employed.” Bruno defines under-employment by salary rather than by hours spent working. His questionnaire broke income into groups, and roughly 80 percent of young respondents landed in the group making under 500.00 EC per month.
Employees who are employed under The National Employment Programme (NEP) make approximately 1000.00 EC, which in his view still puts those workers in the under-employment group.
“It’s filling a gap, and I would advise against the wholesale criticism,” Bruno said of the NEP.
The question however is, what counts as adequately employed? Bruno puts the minimum at 1,800 to 2,000 EC per month based on the cost of living. Only three or four percent of those polled reported earning above 2,500 EC dollars per month. “Based on what we are finding, people don’t make money.” Bruno stated.
Top Voter Concerns
Jobs and the economy were the top issues for voters, 57 percent, followed by agriculture, and healthcare coming in around third on the list, crime and violence was number four on the list of things voters are most concerned about.
The hotly debated issue of; Electoral Reform which dominated at least two general election cycles barely made the list of concerns, at least it landed well below the public debate. Interestingly, the Dominica International Airport now under construction barely registered as an electoral factor. Bruno, wasn’t surprised by this, pointing out that even after former Saint Vincent and the Grenadiers Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves opened an international airport he lost his re-election after being in office for decades.
Education is not a grievance from this poll, the people are mostly satisfied there.
Anthony, wondered how it is possible for a by-election to be taking place in the constituency where the main hospital is located and healthcare is barely appearing in any of the party’s messaging.
“Probably they do not know what are the issues because they didn’t poll to find out what the issues are.” Bruno speculated.
As far as he knows, no political party on island has commissioned scientific polling in the last year and a half. The only field work he could identify was a housing study in the Castle Bruce area.
How they Feel about the Boycott
In the live comments a viewer asked whether Bruno’s polling was framed to support a long-held belief that the 2025 boycott was a mistake.
Bruno responded that he did not ask the boycott question on this poll at all. He asked it in the previous one, and the answer came back conclusively. What he collected this time came through what pollsters call unsolicited responses, the remarks people volunteer while answering something else.
“If I picked up 300 to 400 samples in terms of the unfavourability of any party, there is unsolicited information that tells me why,” he said.
Bruno says that from his read, some senior figures inside the UWP privately share the assessment while declining to say it out loud. He went further to say the Labour Party is now statistically competitive in Roseau North for the first time in his polling history.
Additional survey numbers Bruno shared with TDN included:
- Do you think any single opposition party will win the next Dominica elections? 21.4 percent said, Yes, while 54 percent said No.
- Do you believe the DLP will win the next Dominica elections? 41.4 percent answered Yes, 30.1 percent said No.
- Would you vote for a united opposition slate? 12.5 percent answered, Yes, 11 percent said No. 12.5 percent said, not inspired by the opposition, but 55.4 percent said they would support a united opposition with right leader.
According to Bruno, Independent candidates fared worse among respondents. He called the concept dead on arrival and said fielding a slate of independents has no appetite behind it.
When he asked which currently engaged opposition leader inspires respondents, 23.2 percent said they need to see somebody new, and 20 percent said none of them. That’s 43.2 percent falling into almost the exact same place as every other question.
The Confirmation Process
Bruno while careful throughout the interview to not be too critical, did take a sharper stance on the registered voter confirmation process. He described presenting himself with valid identification, and yet being required to produce a witness, and then having to wait for an unnamed authority to approve the confirmation he had just completed. He then walks away with no receipt.
“Why do I have to wait to confirm my confirmation?” he asked. “That is the part I have a big question about.”
He reported a wide disparity in what people experience at confirmation centres. “Some make a phone call and have their documents delivered by somebody else. Others get sent back repeatedly for additional paperwork.”
As far as he’s concerned, the only solution to this problem is a complete re-registration of every voter on the island, with provisions for non-residents who qualify under the constitution to register when they arrive.
Anthony pushed back slightly, insisting that any reform stay inside the constitutional framework, including the residency clause. A point Bruno acknowledged.
“Dominicans and Dominica deserve better,” he added.
A Poll’s Life
Polling costs money, the bill largely covered by Bruno himself. A full nationwide study across all 21 constituencies runs close to $80, 000, so KAPPA cover 12, almost 13, and pulled the confidence level down to around 90 percent rather than the 95 to 98 he would have preferred.
Being upfront about a secondary complication, Bruno said the team was designed for a sample of a thousand based on the old electors list, then discovered mid-field that the confirmation list may shrink that population by almost half. Bruno cut the sample rather than oversample based on a number he no longer trusted.
The findings have an expiry date Bruno added. Saying a standard poll has 45 to 60 days before it stops being useful for decision making, which puts this one past its usefulness sometime around late September.
“If something dramatic happens right now, the information is almost finished,” he said. For more information on CAPA’s work, visit CAPA’s Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/CAPA.Caribbean or reach out to Professor Bruno directly.
Alex Bruno is also an advisor to the Team Unity Dominica Party (TUD). He says he himself has no plans to run for office in Dominica. He is an author, and a Political Science Professor at Palm Beach State College.